CTGA Tomato Bulletin June 2, 2006

June 2, 2006

Dear Tomato Grower:

In this issue:

· CASS 2006 Revised Estimate

· 2006 Tomato Guesstimator Closes

· Tomato Revenue Per Acre Adjusted for Inflation

California Agricultural Statistics Service (CASS) May 31 Revised Crop Estimate:

· CASS revised its 2006 estimated to the following:

May Estimate Jan Estimate

- Total Production 11.4 Million 11.6 Million

- Acres Contracted 288,000 293,000

- Yield Per Acre 39.58 39.59

· Acreage for key counties:

	2006 Estimate	2005 Actual	Difference
Fresno	111,000	96,800	+14.6%
San Joaquin	38,000	32,400	+19.8%
Yolo	35,100	37,200	-5.7%
Kings	23,000	21,300	+7.9%
Colusa	18,300	19,900	-8.1%
Merced	13,400	14,200	-5.7%
Stanislaus	13,000	10,600	+22.6%
Solano	10,600	10,500	+0.9%
Sutter	7,000	5,200	+34.6%
State Total	288,000	267,000	+7.8%

The estimated acreage for Fresno, San Joaquin, Yolo, and Colusa look optimistic.

· Given the processing capacity of 950,000 tons per week and Northern plants not reaching capacity until the last week of August, it will take divine intervention for the crop to reach 11.4MM tons. A range of 10.0 – 10.3 is a better bet.

So how accurate have the estimates been the last 5 yrs?

Tons	Jan	May	Final	May/Final Difference
2005	10,300,000	10,400,000	9,600,000	+800,000
2004	11,000,000	11,000,000	11,672,000	-672,000
2003	10,900,000	10,500,000	9,252,000	+1,248,000
2002	10,500,000	10,500,000	11,056,000	-556,000
2001	8,900,000	9,200,000	8,640,000	+560,000
		Standard	Deviation	850,139

In CASS’ defense, the estimates are based on what the processors would like to buy as opposed to what’s likely to happen.
FYI – 2006 Tomato Guesstimator 10,128,000 average with 10,820,000 as high.

How 2006 will look to previous years if 39.6 yield is achieved?

Bottom line: Progress has been made, but there’s a lot more to do.