 |
|
||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
| Tomato Bulletins | Press Releases | Editorials | Archives | |
March 30, 2006
Dear Tomato Grower:
Updated Inventory Report:
The CLFP March 1 Inventory and Movement Report shows the following:
|
CLFP March Report |
2003-04 |
2004-05 |
2005-06 |
Difference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beginning Inventory |
4,395,968 |
3,551,256 |
4,002,957 |
13% |
|
Pack |
9,812,110 |
12,266,410 |
10,200,120 |
-17% |
|
Total Supply |
14,208,078 |
15,817,666 |
14,203,077 |
-10% |
|
March 1 Inventory |
5,875,979 |
6,501,209 |
5,441,551 |
-16% |
|
9 month Disappearance |
8,332,099 |
9,316,457 |
8,761,526 |
-6% |
|
Monthly Disappearance |
925,789 |
1,035,162 |
973,503 |
-6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Paste for Sale Pack |
4,725,376 |
6,812,834 |
5,109,760 |
-25% |
|
Inventory Dec 1 |
2,978,710 |
3,819,213 |
2,699,617 |
-29% |
|
Inventory March 1 |
1,627,251 |
2,473,408 |
1,587,148 |
-36% |
|
9 Month Disappearance |
3,098,125 |
4,339,426 |
3,522,612 |
-19% |
|
Monthly Disappearance |
344,236 |
482,158 |
391,401 |
-19% |
Comments:
Although 9 month disappearance is off by 6% we’re still on track to see ending inventories below 3,000,000 – the lowest since the 1998 crop.
More significantly is the paste for sale inventory at 1,587,000 tons. If we maintain the current rate of disappearance there will be no available past July 5.
Given the certain harvest delay, 2006 production should be met with pent up demand.
Weather Impact:
Poor weather continues to plague the entire state which is no news to anyone. Recent storms stopped activity in the south and delayed field work and planting the north.
· Northern transplants are now two weeks late with little prospect for any activity for another week.
· Direct seeded fields are showing very poor emergence across the state.
· The fields that need to be replanted will either fall into a late September or October slot or not be planted at all.
· Some growers in the north are looking to file insurance claims as opposed to fighting this battle any further.
· Northern canners are openly talking about rolling back the entire crop at least a week.
· Given the high percentage of transplants it won’t be as easy to bounce back from these delays as we’ve seen in previous wet years.
The forecast for the next two weeks is not encouraging which could create serious problems.
Paste Market:
Due to uncertainty regarding crop size and start date, several processors are beginning to withdraw from the market. Some term business is quoted at $0.34 vs. annual business at $0.35 - $0.36.
Promotion:
Rodger Wasson has been in contact with scientists from the major brands in order to build a health message that the entire industry can support. The brands have been very open to this approach. There should be more specific news to report next month.
Questions or comments? Please call.
Ross Siragusa
President/CEO
