CTGA Tomato Bulletin Mar 15 06

Dear Tomato Grower: March 15, 2006

Weather Impact:

The following has been reported recently;

Frost damage on direct seeded ground in both the north and south causing some fields to be replanted and others to be switched out from tomatoes to cotton
Frost damaged transplants while in the greenhouses
Direct seeded fields crusted over
Direct seeded fields flattened by rain and hail
Delayed transplanting due to wet conditions causing concern that greenhouses will back up

Bottom line – it’s too early to kill the crop but overall size and processor start dates are very likely to be impacted. The extended forecast which includes rain every 3 days or so doesn’t bode well either.

Projected Crop Size:

The trade is still scratching its collective head wondering where the 11.6 million ton projection came from. Informal surveys find little support for 293,000 acres. The 39.6 tons per acre yield seems like a stretch especially in light of the wet planting conditions.

Based on weather concerns and the dubious acreage estimate many trade analysts question whether 11.0 million is even in the cards. If the crop fails to reach 11.0 million, inventories will remain tight into 2007.

Paste Market:

Tight paste inventories and start date concerns are providing support for the paste market. The market is currently quoted $0.35 - $0.36 but volume is very limited as major buyers try to wait processors out. There is little incentive for processors to move given the likelihood of a late start and a smaller crop.

Canned market – Prices are up based upon higher steel, energy, and raw material. Brands are still facing resistance trying to raise prices, but that is a condition all shelf stable products face.

Sustainable Tomato Workbook:

Following up on our objective to be more proactive towards environmental challenges the Processed Tomato Foundation has begun developing the content for the Sustainable Workbook. The workbook will combine best management practices with measurement systems. The 1^st chapter will address water. Tim Hartz from UCD is assisting on the drip irrigation section. Chuck Rivara is leading the development group so please give him your support.

Fresh vs. Processed Bias:

Last year Governor Schwarzenegger with great fanfare launched “Fresh Start” SB 281 to encourage school lunch programs to serve more fresh fruits and vegetables with the help of $18.5 million in funding. Through the efforts of the Ag Council which represents the CTGA and the CLFP the bill’s language was adapted to allow most processed fruits and vegetables. These improvements are now under attack from AB 1790 which would limit non fresh fruit expenditures to $1.85 million. The issue is not only missing potential sales, but the message that our products are not as healthy as fresh. This is particularly upsetting given the preponderance of evidence to the contrary.

Obviously we will fight AB 1790 and may need your support in the form of letters to your legislators. The bigger issue is supporting a promotional program that will get our nutritional message out to consumers and legislators.

Questions or comments? Please call.

Ross Siragusa