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February 7, 2003

Dear Grower:
CTGA Rejects Del Monte's $49 Offer
Del Monte Foods made a $49.00 offer to CTGA for the 2003 California tomato crop. Evidently, Del Monte growers were getting concerned about the price for this year and the company wanted to give the growers a minimum commitment and hoped that this would do the trick.
 
The CTGA at its Board Meeting of February 4, 2003 resoundingly rejected the offer and in a letter to Del Monte stated that there is a major disconnect taking place in the processing tomato industry in California. Considering the recent Canners’ Intentions numbers (see below), it appears that all logic has left the contracting practices of California processors as they doggedly build inventories and drive down finished product prices. The inevitable financial mismatch, however, cannot be balanced on the backs of growers.
 
CTGA proposes a fair and reasonable price that addresses growers’ welfare of $52.00 per net ton. With the cost of business going up, our $52.00 offer of today is not the same as the one we made in October of 2002. Petroleum prices are on the rise and with the state’s budget in disarray there are numerous proposals that will directly increase the cost to produce tomatoes in California for the 2003 crop. For example, the Mill Tax, the tax growers pay on the sale of fertilizers and pesticides, and Workers Compensation Insurance premiums will no longer be partially offset by General Fund monies.
 
The $52.00 price was established using statewide average cost-of-production and yield-per-acre data plus a modest 5% or $100 per acre profit margin. We know that there are a large number of paste contracts, priced on a cost-plus basis, utilizing the CTGA negotiated price as the benchmark. If this type of contract is good business for processors then it is good business for growers, the #1 critical component supplier. After all California is selling and putting its name on the goodness and wholesomeness of our tomatoes!
 
CTGA is impressing upon all canners that time is of the essence for this year’s negotiations. It is critically important that we have a meaningful dialogue now, as the future is uncertain. We are vitally concerned about the potential impact if the U.S. was to go to war or if the drought that is plaguing the west deepens.
 
CTGA expects to have a number of discussions with canners in the next few weeks.
 
Drought Watch
In 2002, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Nevada and Wyoming had the driest or near-driest summer since meteorologists began taking notes more than a century ago. The Colorado River ran at 14% of its normal flow, a 100-year low. And many think there is worse to come.
 
Drought is no stranger to the west, but each visit is more punishing. Previously reliable water-sources, such as aquifers, are shrinking; populations are growing; American Indian water rights are more strictly enforced; endangered species are more fiercely protected. In previous droughts, cities and irrigators simply built more dams, dug deeper wells, sliced wider canals and diverted streams. Few such options are available today.
 
Climatologists are worried by a recent northward shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a pattern of warmer or colder weather on a 25-year cycle. This new phase, which is causing the rain of the immediate future, will largely fall in the wrong places: on central Los Angeles, for example, rather than over the Sierra Nevadas.
 
Two wet weeks at the end of 2002 bolstered hopes for an El Niño-driven end to three years of drought in the Sierra and northern Nevada. Instead, they were followed by a warm and dry start to 2003.
 
As a result, the snow pack has dwindled below where it was a year ago, and experts are fearing a fourth-straight wintertime bust.
 
In related news, the federal government is warning thousands of West Side farmers that they might receive only 50% of the water they contracted for their plants.
 
Those farmers produce crops on more than one million acres between Tracy and Bakersfield.
 
A complaint from growers and water district managers is that the low initial estimate makes financial planning – and dealing with bankers – difficult.
 

 
California Processing Tomato Report
As reported by the California Agricultural Statistics Service, Jan. 31, 2003
 
Tomato Processors Expect to Contract 10.9 Million Tons in 2003

As of January 15, 2003, California's tomato processors indicated they intend to contract approximately 1 percent less processing tomatoes than in 2002 or 10,900,000 tons.

Processors estimate the contracted production for 2003 will come from 291,000 acres producing an average of 37.46 tons per acre. The acreage forecast is 1,000 acres more than the 2002 planted acreage. The anticipated yield for 2003 would be the third highest on record.

This early processing tomato contract intentions estimate was funded by the California League of Food Processors in cooperation with the California Department of Food and Agriculture. The USDA processing intentions estimate for all states will be issued on April 4.

Intended and Final Harvested Contract Production

Year

January 31

Final

Difference

Thousand Tons

1994

10,100

10,632

+532

1995

11,200

10,473

-727

1996

11,400

10,540

-860

1997

9,600

9,242

-358

1998

10,000

8,846

-1,154

1999

11,500

11,990

+490

2000

10,100

10,131

+31

2001

8,900

8,564

-336

2002

10,500

11,056

-556

2003

10,900

---

---

   
U.S. Processed Tomato Stocks On Hand
As reported by the California League of Food Processors

Inventories of US processed tomato products were 9.6 million tons, stated on a raw product equivalent basis, as of December 1, 2002 according to a report released by the California League of Food Processors. Inventory is +14.6% above prior year levels. Apparent disappearance of tomato stock increased 0.79% to 5.44 million tons during the six-month period of June 1, 2002 to December 1, 2002.
The California tomato paste-for-sale pack is estimated to be 5.2 million tons (raw product equivalent) and inventory on December 1, 2002 was 3.4 million tons.

Total tomato paste stocks, including inventory held for remanufacture was estimated to total 6.8 million tons (raw product equivalent).
CLFP statistics reports are estimates of the total US processed tomato supply, based on voluntary reports from processors throughout the United States. Participating processors handle over 91% of total US tonnage of processing tomatoes.

 

December

2001-2002

2002-2003

Percentage
Increase/Decrease

 Beginning Inventory (June 1)

4,569,959

3,518,082

-23.0%

Pack

9,248,260

11,575,559*

+25.2%

Total Supply

13,818,219

15,093,641

+9.2%

Dec 1 Inventory

8,415,339

9,647,947

+14.6%

6 Month Disappearance

5,402,880

5,445,694

+0.79%

Monthly Disappearance

900,480

907,615

+0.79%

 
2002 Guesstimator of the Year!
 
Congratulations goes to the 2002 Guesstimator Contest winners as follows: 

Grower Winner:
Alan Sano
R A Sano Farms
10,890,000 tons
Industry Winner:
Rick Minchin
Unilever Best Foods
10,888,000 tons


Don’t miss your chance to be the 2003 GUESSTIMATOR OF THE YEAR! Fill out the adjoining form and mail or fax it in today.
 
Entries will be taken until May 26, 2003.

 
 

Processing Tomato Crop Size

Guesstimator Contest

Mail form by May 28, 2003 to:
California Tomato Growers Association, Inc.
10730 Siskiyou Lane, Stockton, CA  95207
or fax to:  (209) 478-9460

Check One:   r Grower    r Allied Industry Personnel

                               Name:

                               Firm:

                               Address:

                               Phone:

My estimate of the 2003 California processing tomato
crop size is                                      tons
.

 

John C. Welty
Executive Vice President

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