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Dear Tomato Growers:
In this issue:
- 2009 USDA Contract Intentions Report Shows Record Crop Desired By Processors For This Season
- CLFP Releases December Inventory Report
- With No Price Offers Growers Considering No Plant Position
- Westland Water District Update
- Beet Curly Top Virus Update
- Annual Meeting Reminder
2009 USDA Contract Intentions Report:
Estimate Acres Yield Total Tons
2009 308,000 43.18 13,300,000
A few things can be stated about the intentions for this year:
- A 13.3mm ton crop would represent a 12.5% increase from last year.
- A statewide yield of 43.18 tons per acre would be a record for the industry. While the conversion to more drip irrigation will help increase overall productivity, this yield increase will be more than offset if late season weather conditions are not ideal. Given the states current drought conditions, this season will see more dependence on well water and the overall impact may make record yields per acre difficult to achieve.
- With the water situation continuing to worsen every week, it is very unlikely that the indicated amount of acreage will be a possibility for this year.
When you take a look at the past accuracy of the intention report you can see the industry was very accurate for the last two years when the weather was very cooperative. However, the results of 2006 and 2005 were significantly below the figures given in the intention report:
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Intention
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Actual
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Difference VS Contract Intentions
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Tons
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TPA
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Tons
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TPA
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Tons
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TPA
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2008
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11.8
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41
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11.8
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42.8
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N/C
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1.8
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2007
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12
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39.3
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12.1
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40.8
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0.1
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1.5
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2006
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11.6
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39.25
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10.1
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35.8
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-1.5
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-3.45
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2005
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10.3
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38.9
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9.6
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36.4
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-0.7
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-2.5
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On a positive note, the CTGA is pleased that the industry believes it has the opportunity to process and market 13.3mm tons in the current economic situation. If the export shipments slow down this type of production could increase inventories to record highs.
CLFP Releases December Inventory Report:
CLFP Dec. 1 Inventory Report
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2004-05
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2005-06
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2006-07
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2007-08
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2008-09 |
Difference |
| Beg Inv June1 |
3,551,256 |
4,002,957 |
2,811,227 |
3,130,000 |
4,393,000 |
+40% |
| Pack |
12,221,760 |
10,200,120 |
10,628,578 |
12,660,000 |
12,342,000 |
-3% |
| Total Supply |
15,773,016 |
14,203,077 |
13,439,805 |
15,790,000 |
16,735,000 |
+6% |
| Dec 1 Inventory |
9,594,418 |
8,031,685 |
8,170,173 |
9,991,000 |
10,136,000 |
+1% |
| 6 Month Disappearance |
6,178,598 |
6,171,392 |
5,269,632 |
5,799,000 |
6,599,000 |
+14% |
| Monthly Disappearance |
1,029,766 |
1,028,565 |
878,272 |
966,000 |
1,100,000 |
+14% |
- The Dec 1 inventory levels are slightly higher than last year. While this number is highest on record progress was made from the June 1 number. (record six month sales)
- The monthly disappearance of 1.1mm tons if annualized, would represent 13.2mm tons best case.
- If the movement were to continue at this rate, the ending inventories will be at 3,535,000 tons.
Over the last few months of pricing discussions, many processors have expressed concerns about both domestic demand in the current economy and the sustainability of the export markets. These are valid concerns given the dependence on the export markets that produced the record six month movement and the current state of the economy. The troubling part is that the crop intentions report indicates that processors intend to contract for 13+ million tons in 2009 with the expectation that the market can handle this volume.
With No Price Offers Growers Considering A No Plant Position:
With no formal offers by the processors to CTGA’s October opening proposal, growers are beginning to express concerns about continuing to drop seed without any commitment of what price they will receive in 2009. The lack of a price offer has spurred discussions among growers considering not dropping anymore seed until the price is settled. The board will discuss this issue at its next board meeting at the end of the month. If any growers are interested on attending the meeting please contact the CTGA office.
Westland Water District Update:
Westland Water District, General Manager Tom Birmingham held a conference to inform growers of their current assessment for the upcoming water year. Three main points were discussed and the following is a summary:
- Allocation- As of right now current water allocation would be 0% for the upcoming year. It is important to note that it appears as of right now with current information that it will remain at 0% for the year.
- Rescheduled Water-Rescheduled water will be allowed but as for the date of deliveries there is still more questions than answers at this point.
- Transfers-The district is currently working on getting transfer water. The ability to obtain transfer water will depend on hydrology conditions for the remainder of this year.
This information was shared in order to help growers make informed decisions about what water would be available for their crops. CTGA has already received calls from a few growers who now feel they will have to cut back on some of their acres that were previously committed to tomatoes. As more growers look at their situation we can expect more cutbacks in acreage. This appears to be the beginning of reduced water allocation announcements that are expected to occur throughout the State.
Beet Curly Top Virus Update:
Meetings with the US Fish and Wildlife Service and conversations with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) have been progressing towards the final completion of the Terms and Conditions and issuance of the required BLM pesticide permit. While this lengthy process has yet to be finalized, all parties involved are confident that a meaningful and appropriate solution is very near. All conversations indicate the CDFA Beet Curly Top Virus Control Program will have a permit in place for Spring Treatments.
Annual Meeting:
The CTGA will be holding its 62nd Annual Meeting and 6th Exhibit in conjunction with UC Cooperative Extension Northern San Joaquin Valley Processing Tomato Production Meeting on January 29th at the Double Tree Hotel in Modesto. The program will begin at 8:00 am and conclude at 3:00 pm. The following exhibitors will be featured:
| Actagro |
Ag-Seeds
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Ag World Systems |
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| American Ag Credit |
Bayer Crop Science |
Hortau Inc. |
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| J. R. Simplot |
John Deere Water Technologies |
Natural Industries |
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| Netafim USA |
Nunhems USA |
Odenberg |
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| San Joaquin Equipment |
Seminis Vegetable Seeds |
Toro Micro Irrigation |
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| Trinkle Ag Flying, Inc. |
Westside Equipment |
Yara North America |
Yosemite Farm Credit |
Ultragro |
Exhibits will be open for your viewing at 8:00 am ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CTGA 2009 ANNUAL MEETING REGISTRATION
Name(s): (please print clearly) ____________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
Company: ____________________________________________________________
Address: _____________________________________________________________
R.S.V.P. by January 26, 2009 California Tomato Growers Association, Inc. 2300 River Plaza Dr. #100, Sacramento, CA 95833 PH (916) 925-0225 | FAX (916) 925-0213
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
| www.ctga.org
* Non Members/Allied Industry please enclose a check for $35 each. Pre-registration & pre-payment required.
Phone: _____________________________
Email:______________________________
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